30% of the World will catch the Flu

One in eight workers in the U.K. are expected to catch Swine Flu by September, according to government figures released to the Finanical Times. The World Health Organization (WHO) had stated that as many as two billion people could be infected by the new Swine Flu Virus, H1N1. However, there have been only about 100,000 confirmed cases to date, but the virus is spreading faster, and is expected to increase rapidly in August and September.

This particular strain of flu is however quite powerful, and can gravely affect not only the elderly and infirm, but also the young and healthy. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians hospitalized due to swine flu, and half of those who have died, had no underlying health conditions, reports the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion. Experts say that one-third of the planet could be infected by H1N1. In the United States, the CDC has confirmed more than 40,000 cases of the virus, but has used computer modelling to estiamte the real level of infection at more than 1 million Americans. As such, it is possible that between 50,000 and 100,000 Canadians may already be infected with H1N1.

A new study tracking the epidemic in Mexico also found the flu strain hits those between the ages of 20 and 50 the hardest, with a higher death rate than other age groups, reports the Globe and Mail.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says $1 billion US is needed to fight the swine flu pandemic for the rest of the year. "We need to get more resources available," Ban told reporters in Geneva, as quoted on the CBC."This pandemic flu is also a sort of a global crisis which needs a global response through global partnership and solidarity," he said.

An H1N1 flu vacination is in the process of being developed, though it may not be ready for public application until the late Fall -- possibly as early as October or November. Two Australian biotech firms have begun testing a flu vaccination on humans, but even if the tests were positive it is likely that a vaccine would not be ready until the Fall.

This flu outbreak was being compared to the Hong Kong Flu of 1968 that killed about one million people. To put the numbers in perspective, an estimated 500,000 people die every year from seasonal flu, including approximately 2,000 in Canada. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, killed some 70 million people.

On June 11, the World Health Organization raised the pandemic alert level from Phase 5 to Phase 6 indicating that an influenza pandemic is underway. The novel influenza A (H1N1) virus now will be referred to as “pandemic H1N1 influenza virus.

Travel

"It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities," cautions the World Health Organization (WHO) website. "Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness."

Additionally, the WHO has stated there is no need for people to restrict their travel for fear of infection: "Limiting travel and imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community."

Symptoms

Human Swine Flu is a respiratory illness with symptoms similar to those of the regular flu including some or all of the following:

fever
vomiting
diarrhea
fatigue
lack of appetite
coughing
sore throat

Some concern has also been raised by the possibility of infection from eating pork products. While the link between contaminated food and human infection is not entirely known, the WHO has stated "There is no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products."

Protection

Human Swine Flu is highly contagious, and is thought to spread rapidly from person to person via:

coughing
sneezing
human touching
object touching (e.g. door knobs)

Canadians should be diligent about their hygiene:

wash hands frequently
cover or block coughs and sneezes
stay home when ill

Report to a doctor or hospital if:

a high fever develops
there are any problems with breathing
anyone is feeling ill after a recent visit to Mexico

"The Public Health Agency of Canada does not recommend that members of the general public wear surgical masks to protect against contracting human swine influenza," states the PHAC website. "Evidence shows that this is not effective in preventing transmission of influenza in the general public. People often use masks incorrectly, or contaminate them when putting them on and taking them off,which could actually increase the risk of infection."

Vaccine

The current strain of flu, Human Swine Flu (A, H1N1) is a new strain of virus with no cure or vaccination. The current strain is thought to have originated in pigs (swine) and evolved and transferred to humans.The Center for Disease Control (CDC) says it has isolated a sample of the virus and produced a "seed stock" of a "reference strain" of the virus -- the first stage of any vaccine production process. However, analysts believe a working a vaccine would take months to develop. Commercial production could then proceed after the necessary hurdles are cleared, which could increase the wait time for consumers looking for a vaccine (in approximately 4 - 6 months).